* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072011 08/17/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 52 59 65 71 79 83 84 81 75 65 57 46 V (KT) LAND 45 52 59 65 71 79 83 84 81 75 65 57 46 V (KT) LGE mod 45 52 58 64 68 73 72 67 61 55 48 42 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 7 9 8 5 4 4 3 4 12 13 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 6 7 7 5 7 5 0 2 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 51 53 8 10 352 359 342 39 296 263 258 238 224 SST (C) 29.4 29.0 28.7 28.3 27.8 27.0 26.3 25.5 24.6 23.8 23.1 22.8 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 161 157 154 149 143 134 126 117 107 98 91 89 86 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.3 -53.0 -52.2 -52.9 -52.6 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 10 8 7 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 72 68 69 72 73 64 62 59 60 62 61 62 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 7 9 9 10 12 13 13 14 14 12 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 3 8 13 17 14 21 25 24 15 19 0 13 3 200 MB DIV 70 55 56 63 39 76 51 39 32 13 3 0 11 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -9 -18 -14 -8 -3 -4 -2 -4 -9 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 188 230 279 376 488 531 609 709 740 784 828 920 1032 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.9 17.3 17.7 18.0 18.5 18.8 19.1 19.6 20.0 20.5 20.7 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 103.4 105.0 106.5 108.1 109.6 112.0 113.9 115.5 116.8 117.9 118.9 120.1 121.7 STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 15 15 13 11 8 7 6 5 5 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 51 35 34 6 20 11 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 18 CX,CY: -15/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 11. 10. 8. 6. 3. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 11. 10. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 20. 26. 34. 38. 39. 36. 30. 20. 12. 1. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072011 GREG 08/17/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 46% is 3.9 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 4.9 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 24% is 6.1 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072011 GREG 08/17/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##