* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932011 08/17/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 39 50 61 73 79 86 92 99 102 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 39 50 51 37 31 28 31 38 41 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 33 40 44 34 30 28 27 39 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 8 9 2 4 7 12 13 16 11 15 11 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -2 0 -1 -4 -5 -5 -1 1 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 133 150 158 190 114 83 63 56 53 58 53 56 64 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 151 153 154 155 156 160 163 163 166 166 164 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 148 150 150 150 150 151 156 160 161 165 166 162 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 11 11 12 11 11 9 10 9 9 7 8 700-500 MB RH 50 58 57 55 61 65 64 68 69 70 71 75 76 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 3 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 64 58 52 51 48 33 38 33 36 29 28 27 200 MB DIV 22 22 22 20 13 34 23 30 37 42 29 41 42 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 -2 -2 0 -3 -2 -3 -2 -2 1 3 LAND (KM) 328 298 284 317 312 106 -26 -53 -45 -122 3 106 113 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.3 15.4 15.4 15.3 15.2 15.1 15.1 15.0 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 75.2 76.5 77.8 79.1 80.3 82.3 84.2 86.1 88.3 90.6 92.9 95.3 97.6 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 13 12 11 10 9 10 11 11 11 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 74 80 62 55 69 5 60 69 35 38 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 29. 33. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 17. 19. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 25. 36. 48. 54. 61. 67. 74. 77. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932011 INVEST 08/17/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 68.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932011 INVEST 08/17/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932011 INVEST 08/17/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)