* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062011 08/17/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 46 46 43 38 34 31 25 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 46 46 43 38 34 31 25 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 45 45 45 44 43 40 37 34 30 27 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 7 9 8 12 15 15 19 26 26 31 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -2 -4 -4 0 -3 -1 -5 -2 -3 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 250 75 117 121 130 125 128 142 162 187 218 223 228 SST (C) 26.9 26.6 26.3 26.1 26.0 25.7 25.6 25.6 25.6 25.4 25.3 25.5 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 132 129 126 124 123 120 118 118 119 119 117 116 119 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 47 49 50 50 46 47 47 48 50 48 34 38 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 10 9 8 7 6 4 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 31 37 38 30 21 0 -11 -14 -10 6 1 -7 200 MB DIV -19 -7 8 20 21 22 3 2 -8 14 3 17 0 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -1 0 0 1 3 3 3 6 4 4 LAND (KM) 1980 1897 1814 1719 1624 1396 1231 1119 958 689 300 217 333 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.3 12.6 13.1 13.5 14.6 15.2 15.3 15.3 15.9 17.2 17.1 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 138.0 138.7 139.4 140.2 140.9 142.7 144.1 145.2 146.9 149.5 153.3 154.8 154.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 9 9 9 7 7 10 16 13 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 0. -2. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. -2. -6. -11. -14. -20. -26. -31. -33. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062011 FERNANDA 08/17/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062011 FERNANDA 08/17/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##