* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932011 08/18/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 39 50 62 73 83 90 97 102 105 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 39 50 43 35 33 29 31 29 32 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 33 42 39 33 32 28 27 31 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 4 1 4 3 8 7 8 4 7 6 4 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 -1 -4 -3 -6 0 0 0 0 3 0 SHEAR DIR 120 152 37 75 76 41 49 30 27 35 115 99 117 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.6 29.9 29.8 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 152 154 155 155 158 160 164 163 168 166 172 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 149 149 150 150 149 153 156 162 160 166 163 171 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.3 -52.8 -52.3 -53.0 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 11 12 9 12 9 11 8 10 6 10 700-500 MB RH 58 56 56 60 64 64 69 68 72 72 72 74 76 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 4 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 63 54 50 50 54 37 41 33 45 35 30 26 21 200 MB DIV 23 25 8 13 20 16 27 10 42 17 32 33 41 700-850 TADV -2 0 -2 -1 0 -1 -1 -4 -1 -5 2 3 0 LAND (KM) 276 262 290 333 217 66 -20 -7 -46 -141 5 -29 10 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.7 15.7 15.7 15.7 15.8 15.9 16.0 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 76.5 77.8 79.0 80.2 81.3 83.2 85.1 87.1 89.3 91.7 94.1 96.4 98.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 11 10 9 9 10 11 12 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 83 64 58 72 26 4 69 0 0 19 0 54 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 29. 33. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 17. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 25. 37. 48. 58. 65. 72. 77. 80. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932011 INVEST 08/18/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 60.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932011 INVEST 08/18/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932011 INVEST 08/18/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)