* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062011 08/18/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 53 54 53 50 44 39 32 26 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 52 53 54 53 50 44 39 32 26 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 52 53 53 53 52 48 44 39 34 30 26 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 10 10 10 10 18 20 16 21 27 26 30 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -4 -3 -3 -3 -3 0 0 -2 -4 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 131 126 128 143 128 144 148 154 166 203 229 244 241 SST (C) 26.5 26.3 26.1 26.0 25.9 25.8 25.6 25.5 25.3 25.2 25.5 25.7 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 128 126 124 123 122 121 119 118 116 116 119 121 123 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -54.3 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 49 50 50 45 49 48 43 44 45 39 36 35 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 12 11 11 9 9 7 6 4 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 38 36 32 27 16 4 4 -4 -4 -6 3 3 200 MB DIV -15 4 21 26 27 24 9 21 20 9 8 11 0 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 -1 1 3 3 2 4 5 2 2 LAND (KM) 1882 1792 1702 1597 1492 1284 1071 856 667 468 285 231 356 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.8 13.1 13.6 14.0 14.7 15.3 15.8 16.1 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 138.8 139.6 140.3 141.2 142.0 143.8 145.7 147.7 149.6 151.8 154.2 156.5 158.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -6. -11. -18. -24. -30. -36. -38. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062011 FERNANDA 08/18/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062011 FERNANDA 08/18/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##