* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062011 08/18/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 59 59 57 51 43 35 27 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 58 59 59 57 51 43 35 27 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 58 60 60 59 55 49 43 37 32 27 23 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 13 14 15 18 21 21 27 28 36 38 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 -3 -1 -1 -1 0 0 1 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 129 130 152 143 138 158 171 181 197 236 248 262 246 SST (C) 26.2 26.0 25.9 25.8 25.7 25.7 25.4 25.2 25.1 25.2 25.5 25.7 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 125 123 122 121 120 120 117 115 114 115 118 120 122 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -54.1 -53.9 -54.4 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 47 48 47 47 45 44 43 42 40 37 33 34 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 11 10 9 7 6 5 3 3 1 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 34 32 29 23 7 4 -2 0 -13 -7 -7 -2 200 MB DIV -7 10 21 22 20 1 4 -1 0 15 13 10 9 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -2 -1 1 1 2 1 3 5 3 2 3 LAND (KM) 1789 1689 1590 1488 1386 1177 936 707 507 336 192 197 323 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.4 13.8 14.2 14.6 15.1 15.9 16.5 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.6 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 139.5 140.3 141.1 142.0 142.8 144.7 146.8 148.9 151.0 153.0 154.9 156.9 158.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 10 10 10 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 4. 2. -4. -12. -20. -28. -35. -41. -48. -52. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062011 FERNANDA 08/18/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062011 FERNANDA 08/18/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##