* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072011 08/18/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 73 75 76 75 72 68 61 51 43 34 25 17 V (KT) LAND 70 73 75 76 75 72 68 61 51 43 34 25 17 V (KT) LGE mod 70 74 76 75 73 67 59 52 46 40 36 32 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 14 9 11 12 4 4 5 13 11 16 15 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 6 2 5 1 3 0 -4 -3 0 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 22 15 356 355 12 22 264 149 175 203 196 210 210 SST (C) 27.9 27.4 26.9 26.6 26.1 25.0 24.0 23.6 23.4 23.3 23.2 23.2 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 146 140 134 130 124 113 102 96 94 94 93 91 90 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 3 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 70 69 67 66 65 64 64 61 64 61 59 57 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 12 12 11 12 12 12 10 10 9 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 8 0 8 20 30 39 38 29 29 6 18 8 12 200 MB DIV 39 29 23 44 60 19 41 6 17 -2 9 18 21 700-850 TADV -20 -12 -3 -12 -18 -4 -3 0 0 0 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 466 539 554 591 645 770 900 990 1054 1146 1300 1362 1390 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.1 18.4 18.6 18.8 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 109.2 110.8 112.3 113.4 114.4 116.4 118.4 119.6 120.4 121.5 123.4 124.3 124.7 STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 13 10 10 9 8 5 5 7 7 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 21 16 10 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -7. -13. -18. -22. -26. -29. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 5. 3. -2. -9. -19. -27. -36. -45. -53. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072011 GREG 08/18/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072011 GREG 08/18/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##