* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972011 08/18/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 41 51 61 68 74 77 81 80 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 41 51 61 68 74 77 81 80 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 32 38 44 51 58 64 69 73 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 3 3 7 8 14 14 16 18 21 12 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -1 -2 0 -4 -6 -8 -5 -3 -2 6 3 SHEAR DIR 84 93 110 273 299 284 295 262 283 287 297 251 290 SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.8 28.1 28.4 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.9 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 130 129 130 132 137 142 146 152 150 148 148 151 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 129 131 134 141 148 152 156 151 145 143 144 149 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -51.5 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 11 700-500 MB RH 60 55 53 52 50 46 47 47 52 57 55 60 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 9 10 9 11 13 14 17 19 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR 92 90 95 92 87 69 59 39 27 29 20 41 44 200 MB DIV 28 29 15 3 1 28 44 42 16 54 56 50 51 700-850 TADV 2 1 2 1 4 5 1 2 0 -1 1 -7 7 LAND (KM) 1798 1694 1601 1500 1411 1282 1102 875 455 206 159 123 30 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.5 14.9 16.0 17.1 18.2 19.3 20.2 20.7 20.9 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 37.9 39.4 40.8 42.7 44.5 48.7 53.1 57.4 61.5 65.2 68.8 71.9 74.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 16 18 19 21 22 21 19 17 16 14 12 HEAT CONTENT 12 13 16 21 26 45 71 65 65 55 61 68 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 8. 9. 7. 5. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 5. 6. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 26. 37. 43. 49. 52. 56. 55. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972011 INVEST 08/18/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972011 INVEST 08/18/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972011 INVEST 08/18/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)