* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062011 08/18/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 58 58 56 51 42 35 27 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 57 58 58 56 51 42 35 27 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 57 58 58 57 52 47 41 36 31 27 23 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 13 15 19 20 20 22 29 31 38 37 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -4 -1 0 -1 0 0 -2 0 0 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 150 150 141 143 157 168 188 188 216 231 259 256 241 SST (C) 26.0 26.0 26.0 25.9 25.8 25.6 25.5 25.3 25.1 25.4 25.8 26.0 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 123 123 123 123 122 119 118 116 114 117 122 124 126 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -54.5 -54.2 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 47 47 50 45 47 42 44 41 36 35 39 36 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 11 11 10 9 7 6 4 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 28 28 25 18 14 4 -2 0 -11 -7 -6 -8 200 MB DIV 8 16 17 27 19 17 1 4 9 21 26 40 37 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -2 -1 0 1 1 1 3 4 3 2 4 LAND (KM) 1667 1575 1483 1367 1250 1014 816 609 390 257 306 428 640 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.6 13.8 14.2 14.6 15.5 15.7 16.2 17.0 17.0 16.2 16.0 15.6 LONG(DEG W) 140.5 141.4 142.2 143.2 144.2 146.2 148.2 150.2 152.2 154.2 156.2 158.3 160.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -14. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 3. 2. -4. -13. -20. -28. -35. -42. -48. -51. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062011 FERNANDA 08/18/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062011 FERNANDA 08/18/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##