* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072011 08/18/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 77 78 77 75 71 65 56 47 38 31 25 19 V (KT) LAND 75 77 78 77 75 71 65 56 47 38 31 25 19 V (KT) LGE mod 75 77 77 75 72 63 56 49 43 38 33 29 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 7 9 11 9 5 5 7 12 15 14 14 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 6 4 6 5 0 0 0 -6 -3 -3 -2 -6 SHEAR DIR 14 11 356 2 23 177 309 215 227 218 237 235 258 SST (C) 27.3 26.9 26.5 25.9 25.3 24.3 23.6 23.2 23.2 23.1 23.1 23.1 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 139 134 130 123 116 105 97 93 92 91 91 90 88 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -52.4 -53.1 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 68 67 66 64 66 64 61 62 62 59 58 55 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 12 11 11 12 12 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 5 23 31 30 38 26 42 25 29 27 23 13 200 MB DIV 41 23 28 57 43 32 26 21 3 14 28 12 11 700-850 TADV -13 -1 -13 -21 -13 0 -11 0 -3 0 0 5 0 LAND (KM) 517 539 598 667 743 850 975 1097 1209 1291 1375 1427 1457 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.5 18.7 18.9 19.0 19.1 19.1 19.1 19.1 19.1 19.1 19.1 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 110.8 112.2 113.6 114.8 115.9 117.8 119.5 121.0 122.3 123.4 124.6 125.3 125.8 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 12 11 10 8 8 7 6 5 5 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 15 11 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -2. -7. -13. -20. -26. -30. -34. -37. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 2. 0. -4. -10. -19. -28. -37. -44. -50. -56. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072011 GREG 08/18/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072011 GREG 08/18/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##