* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932011 08/18/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 47 58 67 78 84 91 92 97 99 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 47 58 67 55 36 30 28 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 37 41 46 58 74 64 38 30 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 8 8 11 10 12 8 10 7 8 6 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -4 -3 -4 -6 -2 -3 1 0 1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 46 83 79 57 64 46 64 5 18 324 8 48 89 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 154 154 156 158 162 163 157 157 161 162 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 149 148 147 149 151 155 155 148 146 150 151 151 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 9 11 10 11 10 10 9 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 59 61 63 63 63 69 70 72 70 72 74 75 74 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 5 3 6 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 52 50 38 39 45 34 38 28 29 32 25 19 200 MB DIV 15 6 25 16 29 23 30 33 29 28 35 34 38 700-850 TADV 0 2 0 0 -1 0 0 -4 0 0 3 3 3 LAND (KM) 303 204 111 67 26 6 35 -58 -174 -166 -120 -61 -78 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 80.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 8 8 8 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 76 31 5 3 3 0 36 87 0 41 39 40 48 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 22. 26. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 17. 18. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 17. 28. 37. 48. 54. 61. 62. 67. 69. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932011 INVEST 08/18/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932011 INVEST 08/18/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932011 INVEST 08/18/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)