* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972011 08/18/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 33 40 50 60 69 76 80 87 88 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 33 40 50 60 69 76 80 57 63 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 42 48 56 64 71 52 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 3 1 4 6 12 12 13 13 15 9 2 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -1 -2 -7 -8 -7 -6 -4 1 7 6 SHEAR DIR 119 104 205 296 273 275 282 266 282 267 285 339 289 SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.5 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.6 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.7 29.1 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 129 130 133 137 140 143 149 152 150 148 149 154 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 130 134 141 145 147 153 154 149 145 144 147 151 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.4 -51.8 -51.4 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 700-500 MB RH 57 54 53 51 48 47 48 49 52 56 54 54 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 10 9 10 12 13 16 20 20 24 24 850 MB ENV VOR 96 101 92 89 78 67 53 40 31 34 47 52 80 200 MB DIV 31 12 3 3 15 28 64 46 21 49 71 44 46 700-850 TADV 1 2 2 3 4 5 0 5 0 4 -2 -7 1 LAND (KM) 1676 1577 1493 1409 1332 1252 1022 738 348 144 24 -18 84 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.0 14.3 14.8 15.3 16.4 17.6 18.5 19.4 19.8 19.9 19.5 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 39.4 41.0 42.5 44.4 46.3 50.4 54.6 58.7 62.6 66.3 69.8 72.7 74.9 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 17 19 20 20 21 19 18 17 15 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 14 17 20 25 30 67 65 62 63 58 52 37 103 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 4. 7. 7. 10. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 15. 25. 35. 44. 51. 55. 62. 63. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972011 INVEST 08/18/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972011 INVEST 08/18/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972011 INVEST 08/18/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)