* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982011 08/18/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 36 40 49 55 61 65 64 61 57 53 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 36 40 49 55 61 65 64 61 57 53 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 32 38 46 54 60 63 63 62 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 14 12 13 13 5 8 10 8 9 13 12 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 -1 1 -1 -1 0 0 0 3 0 SHEAR DIR 73 54 38 53 59 68 160 173 183 204 234 223 215 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.0 26.2 25.8 25.3 25.3 25.6 25.6 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 137 134 132 124 116 113 109 109 112 112 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 134 130 127 125 117 110 108 104 104 107 106 107 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -52.6 -53.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 6 700-500 MB RH 76 76 75 74 75 70 70 64 62 57 55 52 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 12 13 13 12 11 12 13 11 11 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 89 92 91 79 63 54 55 62 67 66 70 50 32 200 MB DIV 80 76 58 43 63 38 44 63 18 0 13 7 27 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -10 -12 -9 -7 -4 0 2 5 6 2 2 LAND (KM) 86 145 205 230 263 386 575 824 1145 1431 1748 2063 2328 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.6 14.0 14.9 16.1 17.2 18.4 19.3 20.3 21.2 22.1 LONG(DEG W) 17.6 18.2 18.7 19.3 19.8 21.1 22.7 24.8 27.6 30.6 33.8 36.9 40.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 6 7 7 8 11 13 15 15 16 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 27 22 19 17 16 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 422 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. -18. -20. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 11. 15. 24. 30. 36. 40. 39. 36. 32. 28. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982011 INVEST 08/18/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982011 INVEST 08/18/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED