* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062011 08/18/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 55 53 50 42 34 26 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 55 55 53 50 42 34 26 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 55 55 54 52 47 42 36 30 25 22 19 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 16 15 15 19 21 30 32 32 32 36 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -1 0 -1 -1 0 -1 -3 0 0 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 147 152 157 163 170 189 206 218 224 223 252 246 264 SST (C) 25.7 25.7 25.6 25.6 25.5 25.3 25.1 25.0 25.2 25.5 25.8 26.1 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 121 120 119 119 118 116 114 113 115 118 122 125 127 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.8 -54.4 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 45 45 41 42 41 41 40 36 33 35 38 38 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 11 9 9 7 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 32 31 21 17 10 0 -3 -14 -17 -19 -23 -25 200 MB DIV 9 11 13 9 3 1 -2 0 26 -1 2 6 0 700-850 TADV -3 -2 0 0 1 2 2 1 4 5 4 2 2 LAND (KM) 1517 1408 1299 1190 1081 849 640 438 281 179 303 491 640 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.7 15.0 15.4 15.7 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.4 17.3 16.9 16.7 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 141.6 142.6 143.5 144.5 145.4 147.5 149.5 151.5 153.3 155.4 157.6 159.8 162.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 10 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 476 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -17. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -12. -13. -14. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -2. -5. -13. -21. -29. -38. -44. -49. -52. -55. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062011 FERNANDA 08/18/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062011 FERNANDA 08/18/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##