* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072011 08/18/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 74 73 70 69 62 56 46 35 27 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 74 73 70 69 62 56 46 35 27 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 75 73 69 65 56 48 42 37 32 28 25 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 14 11 3 3 3 10 11 16 15 13 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 6 4 2 -3 0 -5 -4 -3 -4 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 10 24 17 18 10 274 38 184 204 200 218 203 214 SST (C) 26.9 26.5 26.0 25.5 24.9 23.9 23.3 23.3 23.3 23.3 23.3 23.2 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 134 130 124 118 112 101 94 93 93 93 93 92 91 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 69 67 67 66 63 63 62 64 63 63 57 56 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 12 13 13 13 14 13 11 10 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 0 18 26 25 31 29 24 30 7 13 11 23 18 200 MB DIV 13 8 40 24 12 37 17 17 0 3 8 3 15 700-850 TADV -4 -17 -23 -15 -7 -5 -4 -1 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 521 574 652 732 788 914 1071 1178 1248 1322 1413 1488 1542 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 18.8 18.9 19.0 19.0 19.1 19.0 18.9 18.9 18.9 18.9 18.9 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 112.0 113.3 114.6 115.7 116.7 118.7 120.6 121.8 122.6 123.6 124.9 125.9 126.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 10 9 9 7 5 4 6 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 11 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -3. -9. -16. -22. -28. -32. -35. -38. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -5. -6. -13. -19. -29. -40. -48. -57. -64. -69. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072011 GREG 08/18/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072011 GREG 08/18/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##