* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932011 08/19/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 46 54 64 72 80 85 90 95 98 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 42 36 36 45 33 29 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 40 35 31 44 33 29 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 14 15 12 15 7 13 4 8 9 8 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -4 -5 -6 -1 -2 -1 1 -1 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 71 76 55 58 60 51 53 3 47 4 50 68 44 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.9 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 154 155 156 160 164 161 158 161 163 166 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 147 146 147 149 154 160 156 151 151 154 156 158 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -52.5 -53.0 -52.2 -52.7 -52.1 -52.8 -52.3 -53.1 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 10 11 9 11 8 11 7 10 7 10 700-500 MB RH 64 66 65 66 68 69 72 76 73 77 77 78 75 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 44 34 30 35 28 34 26 18 19 11 12 12 200 MB DIV 21 26 16 22 25 10 22 37 35 39 53 52 67 700-850 TADV 1 1 -1 -2 -1 -3 2 -6 7 0 4 3 0 LAND (KM) 187 106 43 15 -26 2 30 -177 -148 -120 -74 -47 -1 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.8 16.2 16.7 17.2 17.1 16.6 16.3 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 81.5 82.3 83.1 83.8 84.5 86.2 88.3 90.5 92.6 94.3 95.7 97.2 98.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 8 9 10 11 9 7 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 11 5 2 1 71 0 10 0 39 40 44 57 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 22. 26. 30. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 11. 14. 15. 17. 19. 21. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 24. 34. 42. 50. 55. 60. 65. 68. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932011 INVEST 08/19/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932011 INVEST 08/19/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932011 INVEST 08/19/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)