* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972011 08/19/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 33 42 53 64 74 78 86 89 88 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 33 42 53 64 74 78 86 89 74 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 37 44 51 60 69 77 85 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 3 0 4 2 10 8 15 11 17 9 12 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 -1 0 -5 -5 -7 -8 -3 2 3 -4 SHEAR DIR 106 117 282 275 295 302 252 284 262 304 294 326 318 SST (C) 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.9 29.4 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 132 135 138 142 142 145 152 152 148 148 152 159 164 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 137 142 147 147 149 156 152 146 144 146 151 154 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.0 -52.2 -51.3 -51.6 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 11 700-500 MB RH 55 54 53 47 47 47 46 49 53 53 55 57 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 11 12 15 18 18 21 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR 103 101 97 89 90 76 58 43 38 36 48 47 74 200 MB DIV 18 16 14 19 34 35 53 20 57 26 73 46 20 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 3 5 2 6 4 1 -2 -12 2 -4 LAND (KM) 1515 1426 1346 1274 1236 1103 899 508 200 152 55 0 22 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.0 14.3 14.9 15.5 16.6 17.8 18.8 19.7 20.2 20.3 20.2 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 41.4 43.1 44.7 46.7 48.6 52.7 56.8 60.9 64.5 68.1 71.4 74.4 76.4 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 18 20 20 20 20 19 17 16 15 12 10 HEAT CONTENT 18 20 27 33 44 66 72 68 56 62 46 59 87 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 6. 9. 9. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 17. 28. 39. 49. 53. 61. 64. 63. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972011 INVEST 08/19/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 4.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972011 INVEST 08/19/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972011 INVEST 08/19/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)