* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982011 08/19/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 35 38 46 52 55 56 54 49 44 39 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 35 38 46 52 55 56 54 49 44 39 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 32 37 43 47 50 52 52 50 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 10 10 6 7 11 11 11 14 18 21 26 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 3 4 0 1 -3 -3 0 1 4 0 SHEAR DIR 32 29 45 54 105 139 181 201 215 247 249 229 216 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.2 26.5 25.9 25.3 25.2 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 139 135 133 130 126 119 114 109 108 111 111 111 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 130 127 124 119 112 108 103 103 106 105 104 104 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 700-500 MB RH 76 73 72 74 74 72 68 63 59 58 57 54 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 12 13 12 13 14 13 13 12 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 86 86 76 59 50 60 64 52 71 63 55 20 12 200 MB DIV 71 51 37 42 46 35 63 22 24 27 8 10 13 700-850 TADV -8 -5 -8 -8 -6 0 -3 1 3 8 8 2 12 LAND (KM) 162 226 259 288 334 490 712 1010 1274 1570 1885 2197 2450 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.1 13.5 14.0 14.5 15.6 16.9 18.2 19.4 20.5 21.8 22.9 24.2 LONG(DEG W) 18.3 18.9 19.5 20.1 20.6 22.0 23.8 26.3 29.1 32.1 35.2 38.3 41.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 8 10 12 14 15 16 16 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 21 20 16 14 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 495 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 16. 20. 23. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -16. -18. -20. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 13. 21. 27. 30. 31. 29. 24. 19. 14. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982011 INVEST 08/19/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982011 INVEST 08/19/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED