* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062011 08/19/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 52 49 45 37 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 54 52 49 45 37 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 55 53 52 49 44 39 33 28 23 20 17 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 14 16 17 20 25 36 30 34 35 46 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 0 0 -1 0 1 -7 -1 0 0 -4 -6 SHEAR DIR 143 155 154 172 180 202 202 218 216 223 230 239 247 SST (C) 25.7 25.6 25.5 25.5 25.4 25.2 25.0 25.2 25.4 25.7 25.8 26.1 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 121 120 119 118 117 115 113 115 116 120 121 124 127 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -54.4 -54.7 -54.7 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 45 38 40 40 42 42 36 32 31 33 35 35 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 9 9 8 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 25 18 13 7 4 -3 0 -11 -11 -17 -23 -34 200 MB DIV 10 19 15 -1 16 0 9 24 27 15 7 1 6 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 2 3 3 2 2 6 6 6 6 2 LAND (KM) 1445 1316 1188 1072 955 739 520 346 236 220 329 477 566 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.1 15.5 15.8 16.1 16.6 16.9 17.1 17.1 17.0 17.0 17.1 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 142.2 143.3 144.4 145.5 146.5 148.5 150.7 152.7 154.4 156.2 158.1 159.9 161.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 11 10 10 10 9 8 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -15. -17. -21. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -10. -18. -27. -36. -42. -48. -52. -56. -58. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062011 FERNANDA 08/19/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062011 FERNANDA 08/19/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##