* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072011 08/19/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 66 62 59 57 53 47 39 31 23 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 66 62 59 57 53 47 39 31 23 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 67 63 59 55 48 42 37 33 29 25 23 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 18 13 9 2 2 8 11 14 17 16 19 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 2 -1 1 0 0 -6 -2 -3 -2 -7 -2 SHEAR DIR 28 25 22 23 87 344 121 173 176 203 204 204 191 SST (C) 26.5 26.0 25.4 24.8 24.3 23.6 23.5 23.6 23.7 23.7 23.6 24.0 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 129 124 118 111 106 98 96 96 98 98 97 101 106 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.3 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -53.3 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 68 67 66 63 65 63 65 67 67 64 58 56 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 15 15 15 15 13 12 11 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 14 21 19 25 26 17 25 6 2 3 15 24 22 200 MB DIV 22 44 28 20 20 31 52 2 25 31 38 21 33 700-850 TADV -17 -24 -11 -8 -5 -5 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 LAND (KM) 570 644 733 794 865 1013 1156 1262 1349 1440 1542 1664 1781 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 18.9 19.0 19.0 19.0 18.9 18.6 18.4 18.4 18.4 18.4 18.1 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 113.3 114.5 115.7 116.8 117.9 119.8 121.3 122.4 123.4 124.7 126.1 127.4 128.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 8 6 5 6 6 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -15. -21. -26. -28. -31. -33. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -11. -13. -17. -23. -31. -39. -47. -54. -59. -63. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072011 GREG 08/19/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072011 GREG 08/19/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##