* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972011 08/19/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 35 44 55 66 73 82 85 88 89 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 35 44 55 66 73 80 53 47 48 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 30 32 39 47 56 67 75 52 47 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 1 2 1 4 7 10 9 16 15 17 12 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 -2 0 -2 -4 -7 -4 -5 0 0 4 -6 SHEAR DIR 122 183 349 195 262 293 295 280 291 304 297 296 315 SST (C) 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.8 29.3 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 140 142 142 142 142 145 151 151 151 149 150 157 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 145 144 145 145 147 153 151 149 146 144 150 150 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -52.7 -52.9 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -51.3 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 11 11 700-500 MB RH 54 52 52 49 50 52 53 54 58 61 59 61 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 8 8 9 10 11 13 14 17 18 17 17 850 MB ENV VOR 98 93 86 86 82 71 57 41 36 44 38 62 77 200 MB DIV -3 4 6 15 16 36 25 28 10 53 51 79 15 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 1 3 -3 0 -3 -3 -8 -10 4 0 LAND (KM) 1309 1224 1150 1103 1066 911 736 461 106 38 -54 43 71 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.5 14.8 15.9 16.7 17.6 18.2 18.7 18.8 18.9 18.5 LONG(DEG W) 44.2 45.9 47.5 49.2 50.9 54.4 57.9 61.4 64.7 68.0 71.1 73.7 75.8 STM SPEED (KT) 18 16 16 17 17 17 17 17 16 15 13 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 26 37 40 50 59 59 67 45 53 62 87 89 94 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 12. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 10. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 6. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 19. 30. 41. 48. 57. 60. 63. 64. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972011 INVEST 08/19/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 18.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972011 INVEST 08/19/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972011 INVEST 08/19/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)