* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982011 08/19/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 35 43 48 54 56 56 52 48 43 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 35 43 48 54 56 56 52 48 43 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 35 40 44 48 51 52 51 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 8 3 5 9 10 8 10 13 13 19 28 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 7 7 6 0 0 -1 -2 3 3 1 3 SHEAR DIR 24 77 101 135 135 166 180 197 228 240 227 211 210 SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.1 26.9 26.5 26.2 25.5 25.6 25.8 25.8 26.0 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 135 131 128 125 123 119 117 111 112 113 113 115 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 125 123 119 117 114 112 106 106 107 106 107 109 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -52.8 -53.0 -52.4 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 700-500 MB RH 72 72 72 72 73 71 68 63 59 54 49 45 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 12 11 12 14 13 15 14 15 13 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 91 78 62 59 60 67 65 82 82 89 74 74 55 200 MB DIV 53 26 39 48 48 62 79 61 16 53 4 -4 -1 700-850 TADV -5 -1 -1 0 2 0 -1 0 2 0 -6 0 -3 LAND (KM) 270 311 362 434 515 714 974 1283 1584 1869 2153 2194 2064 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.4 13.8 14.3 14.7 15.7 16.7 17.9 18.9 19.8 20.3 20.8 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 19.3 20.0 20.7 21.5 22.3 24.1 26.4 29.1 32.0 34.9 37.7 40.4 43.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 11 13 14 15 14 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 19 14 8 4 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 20. 23. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 3. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. -18. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 18. 23. 29. 31. 31. 27. 23. 18. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982011 INVEST 08/19/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982011 INVEST 08/19/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED