* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072011 08/19/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 62 60 58 58 53 45 35 26 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 62 60 58 58 53 45 35 26 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 61 57 53 49 43 37 33 28 25 22 20 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 13 9 3 4 2 9 15 17 18 11 11 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 0 0 2 -1 3 -1 -1 -3 -3 -3 -6 -3 SHEAR DIR 16 30 4 349 325 273 213 230 227 235 218 222 187 SST (C) 26.0 25.4 24.7 24.2 23.7 23.3 23.3 23.5 23.6 23.6 23.9 24.2 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 124 118 110 105 99 95 94 96 97 96 99 103 104 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.1 -52.6 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 2 3 3 3 2 3 2 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 66 66 62 63 58 61 59 53 50 46 47 49 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 15 17 17 19 18 16 14 13 11 10 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 22 24 28 28 27 29 41 34 46 46 56 41 39 200 MB DIV 44 39 26 26 49 55 14 16 25 32 50 11 -1 700-850 TADV -25 -12 -13 -10 -12 -8 -2 -5 -2 0 0 2 3 LAND (KM) 637 721 775 848 929 1087 1237 1367 1474 1572 1657 1751 1847 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.1 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.0 18.8 18.6 18.5 18.4 18.2 18.0 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 114.5 115.7 116.8 117.9 119.0 120.8 122.4 123.9 125.3 126.5 127.4 128.4 129.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -10. -15. -20. -24. -26. -28. -30. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -7. -12. -20. -30. -39. -48. -54. -59. -62. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072011 GREG 08/19/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072011 GREG 08/19/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##