* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT AL082011 08/19/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 45 53 62 70 77 81 87 93 97 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 45 47 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 34 37 41 51 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 8 9 16 12 13 7 8 8 11 6 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -6 -4 -3 -3 0 0 0 -2 -6 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 47 48 42 28 31 58 20 63 40 65 77 50 359 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.7 30.0 30.0 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 156 158 160 160 164 160 159 161 164 169 169 167 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 147 150 152 153 157 154 154 154 155 158 159 157 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.0 -52.7 -52.0 -52.7 -52.3 -53.0 -52.3 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 11 9 9 11 8 11 8 11 8 11 8 700-500 MB RH 67 67 70 70 72 73 74 75 74 74 77 73 75 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 5 6 5 5 5 4 4 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 38 53 50 44 44 36 32 25 21 29 32 47 200 MB DIV 10 35 45 26 7 37 32 37 27 42 44 32 51 700-850 TADV 0 -2 0 0 -1 2 -3 6 -1 2 1 -2 0 LAND (KM) 90 32 24 46 72 -4 -170 -150 -73 -161 -175 -144 -67 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.1 16.1 16.3 16.4 16.7 16.9 17.2 17.6 17.8 18.0 18.3 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 83.3 84.1 84.8 85.7 86.5 88.4 90.3 92.5 94.8 96.9 98.6 100.0 101.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 9 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 7 11 16 39 70 7 0 41 40 0 66 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 22. 26. 30. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 17. 19. 20. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 23. 33. 40. 47. 51. 57. 63. 67. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082011 EIGHT 08/19/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082011 EIGHT 08/19/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082011 EIGHT 08/19/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)