* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972011 08/19/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 37 48 61 73 83 89 95 96 97 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 37 48 61 73 71 68 46 49 51 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 33 40 49 60 64 64 43 52 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 4 6 5 5 2 8 10 16 14 12 16 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 -4 -3 -4 -8 -7 -4 0 3 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 148 107 150 221 300 286 306 272 287 290 283 285 340 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.6 29.1 29.4 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 141 141 143 149 149 150 150 147 155 159 166 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 143 143 143 144 151 150 149 148 144 150 151 159 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -51.7 -51.6 -51.1 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 12 11 12 12 12 10 700-500 MB RH 48 48 49 50 50 52 57 53 57 57 60 59 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 8 9 10 11 14 14 18 20 21 20 21 850 MB ENV VOR 91 89 92 88 86 73 60 46 42 52 54 65 81 200 MB DIV 10 18 29 21 23 29 23 38 50 67 67 8 26 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 1 0 -1 1 -4 -2 -8 0 -2 1 LAND (KM) 1105 1049 1002 981 916 707 643 299 -22 -10 -43 24 33 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.8 14.0 14.3 14.6 15.6 16.6 17.5 18.3 18.9 19.4 19.6 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 47.3 48.9 50.4 52.0 53.5 56.7 59.9 63.0 66.1 69.2 72.4 74.9 77.3 STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 15 15 16 16 16 15 15 15 14 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 47 50 56 56 61 72 64 73 75 14 95 94 90 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 12. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 23. 36. 48. 58. 64. 70. 71. 72. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972011 INVEST 08/19/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 54.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972011 INVEST 08/19/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972011 INVEST 08/19/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)