* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982011 08/19/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 44 51 57 59 58 54 49 45 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 44 51 57 59 58 54 49 45 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 41 45 49 51 51 51 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 6 9 10 9 6 10 10 15 21 22 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 4 2 0 -1 -1 1 1 0 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 58 80 103 134 132 184 165 212 241 216 224 215 231 SST (C) 27.8 27.4 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.5 25.9 25.5 25.7 25.8 25.8 25.8 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 133 129 125 123 121 120 114 110 112 113 112 113 115 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 124 121 118 116 115 109 104 105 105 104 105 106 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 75 75 76 75 70 71 67 64 55 53 47 46 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 13 15 15 16 17 17 17 15 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 73 58 57 62 66 75 72 89 84 87 63 59 43 200 MB DIV 47 43 68 72 71 79 68 85 53 37 4 -10 11 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -1 1 0 -2 0 2 7 19 1 1 2 LAND (KM) 281 343 424 521 623 858 1142 1425 1683 1918 2149 2284 2219 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.8 14.2 14.7 15.1 16.1 17.2 18.2 19.1 20.0 20.7 21.6 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 19.6 20.5 21.4 22.4 23.3 25.4 27.9 30.4 33.0 35.4 37.7 40.1 42.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 10 11 12 13 13 13 12 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 16 10 4 3 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 20. 23. 25. 25. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 10. 9. 7. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 26. 32. 34. 33. 29. 24. 20. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982011 INVEST 08/19/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982011 INVEST 08/19/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED