* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072011 08/19/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 57 55 53 51 44 36 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 57 55 53 51 44 36 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 56 53 49 46 40 34 30 27 24 22 20 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 10 8 9 6 4 9 12 17 14 11 10 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 -1 2 2 -1 0 -2 0 -7 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 26 351 279 282 331 204 216 200 219 218 204 183 178 SST (C) 25.6 25.0 24.5 23.9 23.5 23.3 23.7 24.0 23.8 24.0 24.8 25.2 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 119 113 108 102 97 94 98 102 99 101 109 114 115 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.2 -51.9 -52.4 -52.9 -52.4 -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -53.1 -52.9 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 65 62 60 59 60 62 61 55 47 46 45 48 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 19 18 19 19 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 26 29 31 28 23 36 31 42 49 55 42 29 17 200 MB DIV 38 31 22 48 42 38 21 25 39 46 34 13 -6 700-850 TADV -12 -14 -10 -10 -11 -3 -2 -2 0 0 0 5 4 LAND (KM) 693 758 823 892 968 1129 1286 1433 1535 1641 1764 1881 2000 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.1 19.1 19.2 19.2 19.0 18.3 18.0 18.2 18.0 17.3 17.0 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 115.3 116.4 117.4 118.5 119.5 121.3 122.6 124.1 125.8 127.0 127.9 129.1 130.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 8 7 6 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -13. -17. -20. -21. -22. -23. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -9. -16. -24. -32. -41. -48. -54. -57. -58. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072011 GREG 08/19/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072011 GREG 08/19/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##