* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912011 08/19/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 31 39 47 52 54 55 56 58 60 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 31 39 47 52 54 55 56 58 60 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 28 33 37 39 41 43 46 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 8 13 17 17 20 21 19 20 20 16 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -5 -6 -4 -3 -4 -5 -5 -4 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 49 75 79 69 73 80 92 99 104 99 113 117 126 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.4 27.9 27.7 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 153 152 152 151 148 143 141 145 146 147 146 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 76 74 74 72 76 72 74 69 71 67 71 69 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 4 11 9 3 -4 -11 -4 -3 -7 -5 -10 1 -3 200 MB DIV 32 45 30 16 5 10 15 9 -33 3 4 31 25 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 1 2 1 4 3 3 LAND (KM) 461 488 514 538 567 602 694 803 969 1139 1250 1381 1554 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.0 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.3 13.3 13.2 13.0 12.4 LONG(DEG W) 100.0 101.1 102.1 103.0 103.9 105.6 107.4 109.4 111.5 113.8 116.0 117.9 119.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 9 8 9 10 11 11 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 12 8 11 12 15 43 18 5 16 24 43 24 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 467 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 14. 22. 28. 33. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 19. 27. 32. 34. 35. 36. 38. 40. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912011 INVEST 08/19/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912011 INVEST 08/19/11 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING