* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL082011 08/19/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 45 50 53 61 66 73 76 77 81 86 88 V (KT) LAND 35 40 45 50 53 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 43 47 52 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 11 13 16 11 14 8 13 13 11 9 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -5 -1 -1 0 0 -2 1 -2 0 4 2 SHEAR DIR 41 31 19 19 31 9 23 11 45 59 71 21 5 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.9 29.8 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 158 160 160 160 162 160 155 157 160 163 166 165 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 152 152 152 155 152 146 148 152 152 154 153 151 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 9 9 10 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 65 69 71 69 73 74 74 75 74 75 72 72 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 7 5 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 48 52 47 46 35 28 19 20 12 15 32 31 200 MB DIV 33 49 30 17 33 26 28 20 29 36 18 24 41 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -1 -3 0 1 2 0 4 3 2 -2 1 LAND (KM) 64 73 99 125 42 -159 -77 -26 -54 -173 -223 -192 -133 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.6 16.7 16.9 17.1 17.5 17.9 18.1 18.3 18.4 18.6 18.9 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 84.3 85.2 86.0 86.9 87.8 89.7 91.6 93.6 95.6 97.5 98.9 100.2 101.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 8 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 69 76 84 93 35 0 27 25 32 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 20. 24. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 16. 16. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 18. 26. 31. 38. 41. 42. 46. 51. 53. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082011 HARVEY 08/19/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 71.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082011 HARVEY 08/19/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082011 HARVEY 08/19/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)