* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982011 08/19/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 36 41 46 49 50 47 43 38 34 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 36 41 46 49 50 47 43 38 34 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 34 37 40 42 43 42 42 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 7 11 11 15 11 10 14 18 19 21 23 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 3 1 1 0 -1 -4 -2 2 -1 0 2 1 SHEAR DIR 29 73 110 153 170 202 188 244 239 227 215 220 221 SST (C) 27.3 26.9 26.6 26.3 26.1 25.6 25.2 25.5 25.6 25.6 25.8 26.1 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 128 123 120 117 116 112 108 111 112 111 112 115 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 118 115 112 111 107 103 105 104 103 103 105 110 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 74 69 72 70 73 66 63 59 54 53 51 49 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 13 14 15 15 16 16 17 17 15 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 61 58 64 77 79 72 91 85 77 63 50 27 9 200 MB DIV 37 42 37 56 78 64 57 41 42 33 9 0 0 700-850 TADV -2 0 2 0 0 -3 4 3 32 24 5 0 -2 LAND (KM) 316 408 508 625 744 1036 1334 1606 1919 2184 2345 2281 2236 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.9 15.4 16.0 16.6 17.8 19.0 20.0 21.0 21.8 22.5 23.2 24.0 LONG(DEG W) 20.4 21.3 22.2 23.2 24.2 26.7 29.6 32.4 35.5 38.1 40.4 42.7 45.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 13 14 14 15 14 12 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 10 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 19. 22. 24. 24. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. -17. -19. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 11. 16. 21. 24. 25. 22. 18. 13. 9. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982011 INVEST 08/19/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982011 INVEST 08/19/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED