* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992011 08/19/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 42 52 62 69 71 71 67 62 56 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 42 52 62 69 71 71 67 62 56 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 30 32 39 48 57 62 62 60 57 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 11 8 10 5 6 4 10 10 12 16 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -1 -2 -1 1 0 0 4 0 -1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 8 20 39 90 100 94 94 215 243 235 232 253 259 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.0 25.9 25.6 25.6 25.5 25.4 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 133 135 136 136 135 132 124 114 112 112 110 109 111 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 127 129 130 129 126 119 108 106 105 102 100 100 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -52.8 -53.2 -52.5 -53.1 -52.5 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 71 69 70 69 72 71 71 68 61 57 53 52 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 13 14 15 15 16 16 17 17 15 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 95 82 70 76 82 71 71 51 52 57 46 31 4 200 MB DIV 72 63 60 67 83 65 77 62 48 46 2 -11 -16 700-850 TADV -10 -8 -3 -2 0 -1 -3 -6 19 22 16 9 -1 LAND (KM) 874 898 921 938 960 1016 1138 1335 1590 1799 2028 2249 2486 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.6 11.7 12.2 12.6 13.9 15.3 16.9 18.6 20.4 22.1 23.4 24.5 LONG(DEG W) 24.8 25.1 25.4 25.8 26.1 26.9 28.1 29.8 32.0 34.3 36.6 38.8 41.1 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 5 6 6 8 10 12 14 14 13 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 13 14 15 17 17 12 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):210/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 11. 10. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -15. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 27. 37. 44. 46. 46. 42. 37. 31. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992011 INVEST 08/19/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992011 INVEST 08/19/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)