* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072011 08/19/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 46 41 39 36 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 46 41 39 36 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 44 40 36 34 29 25 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 8 7 5 7 12 17 20 19 17 15 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -1 -1 -2 -8 -6 -7 SHEAR DIR 4 275 284 293 317 206 223 206 223 222 223 213 228 SST (C) 24.8 24.2 23.6 23.4 23.2 23.1 23.3 23.4 23.5 23.6 23.6 23.4 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 111 105 98 96 93 92 94 95 96 97 97 95 91 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.0 -52.4 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 65 63 59 61 60 58 49 45 40 37 33 28 22 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 18 17 19 18 17 15 12 10 9 6 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 28 31 31 28 38 48 48 62 55 62 47 51 33 200 MB DIV 21 30 39 25 20 12 17 33 23 23 0 -7 -15 700-850 TADV -12 -13 -13 -13 -5 -7 -6 -4 0 0 2 3 5 LAND (KM) 730 798 876 958 1044 1186 1335 1451 1557 1666 1775 1893 1987 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 19.6 19.6 19.5 19.4 19.2 18.9 18.7 18.5 18.5 18.7 19.0 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 116.5 117.6 118.7 119.7 120.6 122.1 123.8 125.2 126.4 127.8 129.3 130.9 132.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -13. -16. -17. -17. -18. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -9. -11. -15. -16. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -11. -14. -22. -31. -41. -50. -56. -64. -66. -68. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072011 GREG 08/19/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 18.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072011 GREG 08/19/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##