* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912011 08/19/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 25 28 32 38 44 48 51 53 56 59 63 V (KT) LAND 20 23 25 28 32 38 44 48 51 53 56 59 63 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 28 30 32 34 36 39 42 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 14 20 21 23 23 23 18 17 19 16 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -3 -3 -2 -1 -7 -4 -6 -1 -1 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 68 83 74 80 78 96 102 102 109 88 103 124 116 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.2 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 152 152 152 150 146 142 146 148 147 147 145 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 74 74 73 76 72 72 70 71 68 67 69 70 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 8 850 MB ENV VOR 8 10 3 -3 -7 -7 -10 -11 -2 -7 -3 7 1 200 MB DIV 58 44 36 10 15 10 -3 0 -21 -19 11 50 3 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 0 1 2 2 1 2 3 3 2 LAND (KM) 500 524 548 574 585 664 778 922 1109 1272 1390 1512 1687 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.6 12.8 13.0 13.1 13.1 13.1 12.9 12.6 12.4 12.2 11.9 11.1 LONG(DEG W) 101.1 102.1 103.1 104.0 104.8 106.4 108.3 110.4 112.6 114.8 116.8 118.4 120.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 8 9 10 10 11 10 9 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 9 11 13 15 42 39 11 7 14 20 27 10 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 464 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 14. 22. 28. 33. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 12. 18. 24. 28. 31. 33. 36. 39. 43. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912011 INVEST 08/19/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912011 INVEST 08/19/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##