* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL082011 08/20/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 55 59 64 72 77 81 85 88 91 93 93 V (KT) LAND 45 50 55 59 56 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 45 51 56 62 69 39 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 15 17 9 12 7 12 8 9 9 6 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -2 -1 -2 0 1 0 3 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 60 8 17 35 40 4 14 5 51 35 23 338 356 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 160 160 164 158 157 159 162 167 168 166 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 150 153 154 158 151 149 151 154 156 155 153 150 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.8 -52.3 -52.0 -52.7 -52.1 -52.8 -52.2 -52.9 -52.2 -52.5 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 8 10 10 8 10 7 10 8 11 8 13 700-500 MB RH 71 72 71 73 75 73 77 76 76 77 76 75 73 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 7 7 7 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 53 50 52 56 35 37 26 22 18 18 36 45 200 MB DIV 52 33 27 36 48 34 32 36 46 52 42 43 57 700-850 TADV -2 0 -2 0 4 -2 7 -2 8 2 -2 2 -7 LAND (KM) 26 45 71 84 -4 -167 -111 -33 -109 -204 -168 -137 -100 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.3 16.4 16.7 16.9 17.3 17.6 17.9 18.1 18.2 18.4 18.7 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 84.7 85.6 86.4 87.4 88.3 90.4 92.3 94.4 96.5 98.4 99.7 100.8 102.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 8 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 16 37 69 95 4 0 0 24 0 65 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 19. 21. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 10. 11. 13. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 19. 27. 32. 36. 40. 43. 46. 48. 48. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082011 HARVEY 08/20/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082011 HARVEY 08/20/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082011 HARVEY 08/20/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)