* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982011 08/20/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 35 40 44 44 44 37 31 25 21 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 35 40 44 44 44 37 31 25 21 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 33 35 37 38 37 35 33 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 11 14 13 10 18 20 26 29 39 42 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 4 0 0 0 -3 0 0 3 1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 74 131 150 161 190 205 216 238 233 223 209 218 224 SST (C) 26.7 26.4 26.1 25.8 25.4 25.1 25.4 25.5 25.4 25.5 26.0 26.8 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 122 118 115 113 110 108 110 111 110 111 115 123 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 112 109 107 104 102 104 104 102 102 105 112 117 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.4 -53.1 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -53.2 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 3 5 5 6 7 8 700-500 MB RH 69 68 66 66 66 61 58 58 52 58 57 55 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 13 15 14 14 15 14 16 13 11 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 74 80 88 91 89 82 94 63 51 36 23 2 -16 200 MB DIV 45 39 60 76 77 41 40 45 25 27 3 13 -7 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 -1 -3 1 8 14 32 -3 0 -14 -8 LAND (KM) 463 569 679 803 929 1193 1465 1781 2085 2373 2423 2224 2020 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.9 16.5 17.2 17.9 19.3 20.6 21.7 22.9 23.9 24.7 25.6 26.6 LONG(DEG W) 21.8 22.7 23.6 24.6 25.6 28.3 31.1 34.2 37.2 40.0 42.8 45.6 48.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 12 13 15 15 15 14 14 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 3. -1. -5. -10. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. -17. -19. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. -1. -3. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 15. 19. 19. 19. 13. 6. 0. -4. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982011 INVEST 08/20/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982011 INVEST 08/20/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED