* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072011 08/20/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 40 35 32 28 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 40 35 32 28 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 39 35 32 29 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 6 4 6 12 15 23 20 23 18 14 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 1 -2 -1 -7 -8 -5 -6 SHEAR DIR 297 309 322 315 226 260 217 222 231 224 225 233 234 SST (C) 24.2 23.7 23.4 23.1 23.0 23.0 23.2 23.4 23.6 23.7 23.7 23.3 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 104 99 96 93 91 91 93 95 97 98 99 94 90 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 63 62 59 60 60 57 53 44 42 39 32 26 21 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 19 19 18 18 15 13 11 8 7 5 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR 33 30 22 30 38 25 35 41 37 45 34 33 20 200 MB DIV 10 28 19 44 42 -15 16 39 29 0 -11 -16 -8 700-850 TADV -13 -15 -11 -7 -3 -5 -1 -2 0 1 2 3 4 LAND (KM) 794 864 939 1018 1100 1232 1369 1488 1611 1723 1843 1966 2060 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.4 19.0 18.7 18.5 18.5 18.7 19.1 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 117.6 118.6 119.5 120.5 121.4 122.9 124.4 125.7 127.1 128.5 130.1 131.8 133.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 7 7 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -13. -13. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 3. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -9. -14. -15. -18. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -13. -17. -27. -38. -47. -57. -62. -68. -70. -72. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072011 GREG 08/20/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072011 GREG 08/20/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##