* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912011 08/20/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 30 36 41 44 46 46 49 50 52 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 30 36 41 44 46 46 49 50 52 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 26 28 29 30 31 33 36 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 16 19 20 18 21 22 26 23 28 25 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -4 -4 -4 -2 -3 -4 -5 -2 -4 -3 -6 SHEAR DIR 56 58 64 78 96 100 101 88 90 83 81 99 99 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.1 27.9 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 152 152 151 148 145 143 148 147 145 143 140 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -53.3 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 74 73 75 72 71 70 67 69 69 70 69 69 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 6 7 7 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 7 2 -4 -4 -1 -6 -8 -4 -6 3 2 14 200 MB DIV 73 63 26 30 35 22 1 2 4 7 33 21 40 700-850 TADV 1 -2 -2 0 2 3 0 0 1 1 0 1 6 LAND (KM) 539 561 588 602 626 728 844 999 1194 1357 1477 1597 1713 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.0 12.9 12.8 12.4 12.0 11.7 11.2 10.5 9.7 LONG(DEG W) 102.2 103.1 103.9 104.7 105.5 107.2 109.0 110.9 113.1 115.1 116.6 117.6 118.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 9 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 11 13 16 38 42 15 8 9 11 13 14 12 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 430 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 7. 14. 22. 28. 32. 36. 38. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 21. 24. 26. 26. 29. 30. 32. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912011 INVEST 08/20/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912011 INVEST 08/20/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##