* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL082011 08/20/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 60 65 69 74 79 83 88 91 93 95 97 V (KT) LAND 50 55 60 54 44 32 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 50 56 61 58 46 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 17 15 8 7 11 8 8 6 3 6 5 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -1 -2 0 3 2 6 2 3 1 3 6 SHEAR DIR 22 23 33 39 2 23 355 19 41 57 51 30 25 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 162 164 162 157 158 159 163 162 160 160 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 153 156 158 157 152 150 149 151 148 144 144 147 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 -51.9 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 10 11 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 70 71 71 73 72 76 76 76 76 70 68 63 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 8 9 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 57 59 59 47 47 26 29 31 22 30 36 49 200 MB DIV 21 42 42 34 22 43 42 39 52 37 35 45 35 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -1 2 0 4 1 9 8 6 -2 3 -7 LAND (KM) 52 73 66 -19 -128 -122 -37 -71 -129 -227 -265 -284 -352 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.8 17.1 17.5 17.9 18.2 18.7 19.2 19.8 20.5 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 85.7 86.6 87.5 88.5 89.5 91.9 94.0 95.8 97.2 98.6 99.4 100.1 101.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 11 11 9 8 7 6 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 46 70 98 1 0 0 25 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 14. 16. 17. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 19. 24. 29. 33. 38. 41. 43. 45. 47. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082011 HARVEY 08/20/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082011 HARVEY 08/20/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082011 HARVEY 08/20/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)