* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982011 08/20/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 35 41 44 47 46 43 37 33 29 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 35 41 44 47 46 43 37 33 29 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 32 35 37 39 39 39 38 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 14 14 13 11 15 16 17 20 24 35 30 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -2 -2 -2 -4 -2 0 5 2 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 127 165 169 196 208 192 235 223 223 201 213 225 240 SST (C) 26.4 26.2 25.9 25.7 25.4 25.3 25.6 25.6 25.6 25.8 26.2 26.7 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 119 116 114 112 110 109 112 111 111 113 116 121 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 110 108 107 104 104 105 103 102 103 105 108 111 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -53.4 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 67 68 66 63 62 60 54 54 53 53 50 45 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 14 14 14 15 14 15 15 14 12 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 97 103 104 111 99 105 83 62 51 34 8 -10 -27 200 MB DIV 42 34 71 66 48 45 38 43 31 22 -18 4 -16 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 -3 0 5 6 15 17 0 -3 0 -5 LAND (KM) 643 762 881 1026 1170 1437 1725 2019 2262 2403 2385 2237 2097 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.5 17.1 17.7 18.2 19.5 20.5 21.6 22.6 23.7 24.6 25.7 26.7 LONG(DEG W) 23.4 24.4 25.4 26.7 27.9 30.7 33.6 36.5 38.9 41.3 43.4 45.5 47.4 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 13 13 14 15 15 13 12 12 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 9 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 15 CX,CY: -11/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 23. 23. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 2. -1. -4. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -16. -17. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 16. 19. 22. 21. 18. 12. 8. 4. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982011 INVEST 08/20/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982011 INVEST 08/20/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED