* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062011 08/20/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 21 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 23 21 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 21 19 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 21 23 26 29 24 29 32 36 40 45 43 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 2 0 3 4 3 6 1 2 3 N/A SHEAR DIR 196 197 194 190 199 225 224 245 247 246 238 249 N/A SST (C) 25.5 25.6 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.7 25.9 26.0 26.2 26.2 26.3 26.5 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 119 118 118 118 120 122 123 125 125 126 128 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.6 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.3 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 9 9 9 9 N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 40 41 40 41 42 42 42 37 35 36 35 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 9 1 -4 -4 -3 -10 -13 -12 -10 -4 -19 N/A 200 MB DIV 15 12 18 5 0 38 17 2 25 5 14 14 N/A 700-850 TADV 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 2 -1 0 -1 6 N/A LAND (KM) 877 790 707 617 537 423 389 453 575 699 722 802 N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.6 15.5 15.6 15.6 15.5 15.4 15.4 15.6 15.9 16.2 16.6 N/A LONG(DEG W) 147.6 148.6 149.6 150.7 151.8 153.8 155.8 157.8 159.9 161.7 163.0 164.9 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 9 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 4 9 21 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 12. 14. 17. 19. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -8. -14. -19. -22. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -10. -13. -14. -15. -16. -17. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -8. -15. -21. -29. -32. -36. -40. -44. -44. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062011 FERNANDA 08/20/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 5.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062011 FERNANDA 08/20/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##