* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072011 08/20/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 36 33 29 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 36 33 29 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 36 32 30 27 23 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 2 6 11 14 18 22 18 15 14 13 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 -1 0 -1 0 -4 -4 -6 -5 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 304 331 300 212 234 245 215 233 227 226 214 239 253 SST (C) 23.6 23.3 23.1 23.0 22.9 22.8 23.1 23.5 23.9 24.3 24.2 23.9 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 98 94 92 91 90 89 92 96 100 104 104 100 95 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 62 61 62 61 61 52 50 46 43 39 35 31 25 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 18 18 17 15 13 11 9 8 6 5 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 24 14 22 28 26 16 37 31 39 28 37 31 43 200 MB DIV 16 20 24 27 14 3 23 16 6 -6 -4 -8 -21 700-850 TADV -15 -12 -7 -4 -5 -2 -3 2 0 4 2 3 1 LAND (KM) 860 928 999 1072 1144 1270 1404 1541 1665 1799 1917 2057 2148 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 19.7 19.7 19.7 19.7 19.6 19.1 18.6 18.2 18.0 18.1 18.2 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 118.6 119.5 120.3 121.2 122.0 123.7 125.0 126.3 127.5 129.0 130.5 132.2 133.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 7 7 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -10. -11. -10. -9. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -12. -16. -18. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -13. -13. -13. -14. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -11. -15. -26. -37. -48. -54. -60. -65. -67. -66. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072011 GREG 08/20/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 4.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072011 GREG 08/20/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##