* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL082011 08/20/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 59 63 67 73 79 83 88 91 93 96 97 V (KT) LAND 50 54 45 38 33 29 27 27 27 27 30 32 34 V (KT) LGE mod 50 54 47 38 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 38 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 15 9 9 12 5 14 10 8 10 9 10 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -2 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 -1 N/A SHEAR DIR 23 38 48 9 14 57 45 55 52 24 2 28 N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.6 30.0 30.1 29.9 29.5 29.2 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 162 164 160 159 161 163 170 170 167 160 154 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 154 154 157 154 154 158 158 162 161 158 151 144 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.3 -52.0 -52.3 -52.8 -52.1 -52.7 -52.0 -52.6 -52.0 -52.4 -51.8 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 10 9 8 11 7 10 8 11 8 11 N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 73 71 73 73 75 78 77 80 79 78 76 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 6 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 51 54 49 45 39 25 23 26 34 41 64 N/A 200 MB DIV 33 43 44 15 29 49 55 66 50 56 37 51 N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -1 1 -1 0 7 0 0 4 -6 0 -5 N/A LAND (KM) 101 38 -52 -139 -180 -114 -141 -159 -110 -45 0 84 N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.7 16.8 16.9 17.0 17.0 17.3 17.6 17.8 18.0 18.3 18.5 18.8 N/A LONG(DEG W) 87.0 87.9 88.8 89.9 90.9 93.5 96.0 98.5 100.1 101.7 103.6 105.5 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 10 11 12 12 10 8 9 9 9 N/A HEAT CONTENT 92 32 88 0 0 37 0 66 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 17. 18. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 17. 23. 29. 33. 38. 41. 43. 46. 47. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082011 HARVEY 08/20/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 44% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082011 HARVEY 08/20/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082011 HARVEY 08/20/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)