* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972011 08/20/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 48 58 69 80 86 87 89 92 90 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 48 58 69 62 43 43 45 48 46 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 37 40 44 52 60 54 39 41 47 53 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 2 3 9 10 8 12 9 15 17 19 18 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 -2 -3 -5 -6 -3 -3 -5 -4 -1 -6 SHEAR DIR 312 317 212 248 274 259 293 257 248 259 267 235 276 SST (C) 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.8 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 147 150 151 151 151 150 149 147 148 155 158 161 166 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 155 156 155 152 146 142 138 139 145 146 147 149 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -51.7 -51.9 -51.3 -52.1 -51.3 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 13 12 12 12 13 12 11 11 10 9 700-500 MB RH 54 53 53 53 54 57 58 56 58 60 59 65 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 10 12 12 13 17 19 20 20 21 25 25 850 MB ENV VOR 75 75 68 56 52 53 44 49 47 57 65 86 89 200 MB DIV 37 65 56 29 22 34 35 85 37 58 46 81 58 700-850 TADV -7 -2 1 0 1 -2 2 -5 5 -1 4 2 18 LAND (KM) 767 643 568 561 451 145 0 -33 -44 24 31 35 56 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 18 18 16 13 11 10 10 10 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 68 76 66 70 81 70 69 84 77 56 23 48 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 18. 22. 26. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 7. 9. 12. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 18. 28. 39. 50. 56. 57. 59. 62. 60. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972011 INVEST 08/20/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 72.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972011 INVEST 08/20/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972011 INVEST 08/20/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)