* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982011 08/20/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 42 46 50 52 51 46 43 41 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 42 46 50 52 51 46 43 41 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 40 45 48 50 51 52 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 8 8 7 12 9 14 15 17 22 22 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -2 -3 -3 -7 -2 2 -4 5 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 129 149 164 179 169 199 219 224 223 203 223 241 259 SST (C) 26.6 26.5 26.2 25.9 25.7 25.6 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.8 26.0 26.5 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 121 119 116 114 112 111 112 112 111 112 114 119 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 113 110 108 106 104 104 103 103 102 103 106 109 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 67 68 65 63 60 61 59 58 57 53 47 44 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 13 13 14 14 13 13 14 13 10 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 113 112 110 100 97 100 68 59 44 41 8 0 -19 200 MB DIV 41 55 57 36 33 46 33 -1 27 21 -7 -8 15 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 0 -1 6 4 15 14 4 3 -3 -2 LAND (KM) 834 946 1058 1188 1317 1570 1790 2015 2226 2360 2344 2307 2144 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.3 16.7 17.2 17.6 18.6 19.5 20.6 21.6 22.8 23.8 24.8 25.5 LONG(DEG W) 25.2 26.2 27.2 28.4 29.5 31.8 34.1 36.4 38.5 40.6 42.6 44.5 46.4 STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 11 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 21. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. 5. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -14. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 21. 25. 27. 26. 21. 18. 16. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982011 INVEST 08/20/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982011 INVEST 08/20/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED