* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062011 08/20/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 22 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 22 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 27 26 29 31 34 41 41 45 42 44 38 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 1 0 0 -3 -2 -1 -1 -2 0 1 SHEAR DIR 199 196 198 202 212 224 221 217 220 208 208 197 202 SST (C) 25.5 25.3 25.1 25.0 25.1 25.3 25.4 25.7 26.0 26.0 26.1 26.0 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 118 116 114 113 114 116 116 120 122 123 124 123 124 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.5 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 38 39 36 35 33 32 30 28 28 28 29 29 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 1 0 5 6 12 17 -5 -19 -27 -49 -54 -60 200 MB DIV 19 19 7 -2 24 16 17 23 3 4 -4 14 14 700-850 TADV 3 4 3 3 4 4 4 7 8 5 8 5 6 LAND (KM) 763 655 548 449 351 167 10 94 56 11 160 362 571 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.2 16.6 17.0 17.4 18.2 18.9 19.9 20.8 21.8 22.8 24.0 25.2 LONG(DEG W) 148.8 149.7 150.6 151.5 152.3 154.0 155.5 157.0 158.3 159.6 161.1 162.6 164.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 15. 17. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -7. -13. -21. -28. -33. -35. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -10. -13. -14. -15. -16. -17. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -5. -11. -18. -25. -29. -32. -34. -36. -35. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062011 FERNANDA 08/20/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 5.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062011 FERNANDA 08/20/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##