* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072011 08/20/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 31 28 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 31 28 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 31 28 26 23 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 7 12 11 16 19 16 14 11 11 11 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -1 0 0 0 -2 -2 -5 -5 -3 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 319 278 198 219 244 215 222 225 235 232 267 288 270 SST (C) 23.3 23.1 23.0 22.9 22.9 23.0 23.4 23.7 24.2 24.6 24.4 24.0 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 95 93 92 90 90 91 95 98 103 107 105 101 94 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 61 61 59 59 56 51 47 44 43 37 34 30 27 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 18 17 15 15 13 11 8 7 5 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 21 25 32 30 23 34 43 38 29 16 18 1 4 200 MB DIV 13 10 18 1 0 20 32 21 14 15 -13 -24 -14 700-850 TADV -13 -9 -4 -5 -5 -1 0 1 2 2 3 2 4 LAND (KM) 940 1019 1100 1174 1237 1344 1503 1618 1734 1853 1948 2072 2133 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 19.7 19.6 19.6 19.5 19.3 18.7 18.3 17.9 17.7 17.9 18.1 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 119.6 120.5 121.4 122.3 123.1 124.4 125.9 127.0 128.1 129.4 130.7 132.3 133.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -5. -4. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -3. -6. -9. -13. -14. -17. -18. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -14. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -12. -17. -27. -37. -47. -53. -57. -60. -62. -61. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072011 GREG 08/20/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 9.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072011 GREG 08/20/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##