* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL082011 08/20/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 56 60 62 69 72 79 85 89 92 96 97 V (KT) LAND 50 42 35 32 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 32 33 V (KT) LGE mod 50 42 35 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 34 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 10 10 11 10 7 10 10 4 9 3 0 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 0 4 1 5 1 1 3 2 13 N/A SHEAR DIR 33 39 14 4 6 343 27 39 42 5 321 59 N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.7 30.1 30.2 30.0 29.6 29.4 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 162 159 157 159 160 164 171 170 168 161 157 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 160 155 152 151 153 154 156 162 160 157 150 145 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.8 -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 71 74 72 74 76 77 80 81 80 78 76 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 8 7 6 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 56 48 46 48 28 26 36 24 38 52 75 N/A 200 MB DIV 44 48 24 43 53 45 66 77 64 36 66 74 N/A 700-850 TADV -1 2 0 -2 3 0 4 2 3 -4 -1 -5 N/A LAND (KM) -9 -110 -182 -133 -107 -63 -161 -142 -91 -49 -21 29 N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.4 17.6 17.7 17.8 17.8 17.9 18.2 18.4 18.8 N/A LONG(DEG W) 88.3 89.3 90.3 91.4 92.5 94.8 96.9 98.9 100.3 101.5 103.1 104.5 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 11 11 10 10 8 6 7 7 7 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 40 0 67 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 12. 19. 22. 29. 35. 39. 42. 46. 47. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082011 HARVEY 08/20/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082011 HARVEY 08/20/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082011 HARVEY 08/20/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)