* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRENE AL092011 08/20/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 56 63 71 81 91 102 106 109 108 107 108 V (KT) LAND 45 50 56 63 71 81 91 97 94 77 52 47 48 V (KT) LGE mod 45 51 57 63 70 83 93 85 97 82 54 51 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 3 5 7 6 9 12 7 15 8 15 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -1 -3 -2 0 0 -4 1 -2 0 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 70 136 283 334 330 259 3 271 310 285 256 263 237 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.9 29.3 29.5 29.8 30.0 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 151 151 151 150 148 151 157 160 165 169 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 154 153 153 152 148 143 145 149 149 150 153 154 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -51.8 -52.2 -51.6 -51.4 -51.3 -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 58 55 56 58 59 56 60 58 61 63 68 67 70 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 10 13 16 16 17 20 19 20 20 22 25 850 MB ENV VOR 79 72 64 67 67 54 62 59 61 64 82 85 110 200 MB DIV 93 65 61 69 109 52 46 55 51 48 59 64 97 700-850 TADV 0 2 2 2 0 6 0 5 3 0 6 6 20 LAND (KM) 589 511 491 479 314 133 133 5 63 -24 -22 10 83 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 16 16 16 16 14 12 12 11 10 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 79 69 71 81 87 66 86 97 102 97 56 0 95 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. 20. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 7. 6. 7. 6. 7. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 18. 26. 36. 46. 57. 61. 64. 63. 62. 63. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092011 IRENE 08/20/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 77.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 49% is 3.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092011 IRENE 08/20/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092011 IRENE 08/20/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 8( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 1( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)