* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972011 08/20/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 55 60 66 77 88 101 103 107 109 106 105 V (KT) LAND 45 50 55 60 66 77 88 95 92 75 51 47 47 V (KT) LGE mod 45 50 55 60 65 75 85 81 95 82 54 50 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 7 8 8 7 8 5 6 12 8 15 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -2 -4 -4 1 1 0 -1 0 4 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 150 220 258 283 319 260 12 284 256 265 231 259 290 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.9 29.3 29.5 29.8 30.0 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 151 151 151 150 148 151 157 160 165 169 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 154 153 153 152 148 143 145 149 149 150 153 154 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.0 -52.3 -51.7 -51.7 -51.2 -51.6 -50.8 -51.2 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 12 12 12 13 12 12 11 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 56 55 56 57 58 57 60 56 60 58 62 65 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 12 14 16 18 21 20 22 25 24 26 850 MB ENV VOR 80 74 68 64 63 49 55 58 53 63 84 82 102 200 MB DIV 72 72 65 54 65 38 52 79 34 44 77 33 63 700-850 TADV -2 1 1 3 0 0 1 1 4 4 19 9 16 LAND (KM) 589 511 491 479 314 133 133 5 63 -24 -22 10 83 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 16 16 16 16 14 12 12 11 10 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 79 69 71 81 87 66 86 97 102 97 56 0 95 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. 20. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 6. 8. 11. 10. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 21. 32. 43. 56. 58. 62. 64. 61. 61. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972011 INVEST 08/20/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 77.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972011 INVEST 08/20/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972011 INVEST 08/20/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 6( 9) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 1( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)