* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL082011 08/21/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 35 36 38 44 52 61 68 75 81 87 90 V (KT) LAND 35 31 29 28 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 35 31 29 28 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 10 16 13 6 12 9 8 11 6 5 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -3 -2 1 4 3 3 4 -1 3 8 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 35 351 356 6 21 3 34 24 7 16 298 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 157 157 157 159 160 167 168 167 163 159 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 157 150 151 151 152 153 157 157 155 152 146 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.9 -52.5 -52.0 -52.7 -52.0 -52.7 -51.8 -52.4 -51.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 7 9 10 7 10 7 11 8 13 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 74 76 75 77 77 78 79 76 75 72 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 45 44 50 46 38 41 41 41 56 69 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 47 26 38 50 60 50 67 72 30 58 57 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 0 -4 1 7 -1 4 5 -5 0 -9 N/A N/A LAND (KM) -148 -140 -111 -82 -37 -101 -213 -172 -131 -96 -39 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.5 17.6 17.8 17.9 18.0 18.2 18.4 18.7 18.9 19.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 89.6 90.7 91.7 92.9 94.0 96.1 98.2 99.6 100.9 102.6 104.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 11 11 11 10 8 7 7 8 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 27 25 0 65 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 20. 24. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -8. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -5. -2. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 1. 3. 9. 17. 26. 33. 40. 46. 52. 55. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082011 HARVEY 08/21/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082011 HARVEY 08/21/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082011 HARVEY 08/21/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)